SPORTS ADVISORS
THURSDAY, JANUARY 28
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(16) Wisconsin (16-4, 10-8 ATS) at (10) Purdue (16-3, 8-10-1 ATS)
The Boilermakers look to avenge a loss to Wisconsin from earlier this month when these Big Ten rivals clash once again, this time at Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Ind.
The Badgers are coming off consecutive home wins over Michigan (54-48) and Penn State (79-71 in overtime, but they failed to cover in both games and are now in an 0-3 ATS freefall. Wisconsin is 6-2 (4-4 ATS) in conference play, but both losses came on the road at Ohio State (60-51 as a 5½-point underdog) and Michigan State (54-47 as a six-point pup). For the season, Bo Ryan’s squad is 12-0 at home (7-3 ATS) and 4-4 in road/neutral site games (3-5 ATS).
Purdue ripped off 14 straight wins to start the season, then stumbled at Wisconsin 73-66 as a 1½-point favorite on Jan. 9, which began an 0-3 SU and ATS slump. The Boilermakers righted themselves last week with consecutive wins over Illinois (84-78 as a five-point road chalk) and Michigan (69-59, failing as a 13½-point home favorite). Purdue has now failed to cover in seven of its last 10 games, going 2-5 ATS in Big Ten action. It is also 9-1 at Mackey Arena (3-5-1 ATS), outscoring visitors by 19 ppg (79-60).
Wisconsin’s seven-point win over Purdue earlier this month ended the Boilermakers’ 4-0 SU and 7-0 ATS run in this rivalry. The Badgers have lost three in a row in West Lafayette SU and ATS and they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Purdue, including last year’s 65-52 setback as a six-point road underdog. That’s the only time in the last eight meetings that the favorite covered the spread in this series.
The Badgers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on Thursday, while Purdue is in pointspread ruts of 3-7 overall, 2-5 at home, 1-4 on Thursday, 1-4 against winning teams and 2-5 after a SU victory.
Wisconsin is riding “under” streaks of 9-2 overall, 10-1 on the highway, 6-1 on Thursday, 37-18 in Big Ten play and 38-17-1 after a SU victory. The under is also 4-1 in the last five Badgers-Boilermakers clashes at Purdue. However, these squads topped the total earlier this month in Madison, Wis., and Purdue is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall (all in conference) and 6-2 on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE
Wake Forest (14-4, 8-7 ATS) at (22) Georgia Tech (14-5, 10-4 ATS)
Wake Forest shoots for its third straight victory when it heads south to Alexander Memorial Coliseum for an ACC battle with the 22nd-ranked Yellow Jackets.
The Demon Deacons followed up an 82-69 road upset of North Carolina with Saturday’s 69-57 rout of Virginia as a 5½-point home chalk. Wake Forest has won 10 of its last 12 games (7-5 ATS), but both defeats came on the road in ACC play (90-70 at Duke and 67-66 at Miami, Fla.). The Deacons are still a respectable 5-3 SU and ATS on the highway this season.
Georgia Tech’s mini two-game win streak ended with Sunday’s 68-66 loss at Florida State, though it cashed as a five-point underdog for its third straight ATS triumph. The Yellow Jackets are 2-1 SU and ATS in conference home games, with the two wins over Duke and Clemson being by a total of six points. For the season, they’re 9-1 at Alexander Coliseum (4-1 ATS in lined games), putting up 75.7 ppg while yielding just 59.5.
Wake Forest snapped a three-game losing streak to Georgia Tech last year with an 87-69 victory as a 13½-point home favorite. The host is 8-1 in the last nine regular-season meetings (7-2 ATS), Georgia Tech is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in Atlanta and the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last nine battles.
The Demon Deacons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the highway going back to last season, but they’ve failed to cover in five straight games on Thursday. Georgia Tech is on pointspread tears of 4-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 8-2 in ACC play, 4-1 on Thursday, 5-0 after a SU defeat, 8-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 versus winning teams.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for Wake on the road, 5-2 for Wake in ACC action, 4-1 for the Yellow Jackets overall, 5-1 for the Yellow Jackets at home and 6-1 for the Yellow Jackets against league foes. On the flip side, the last five meetings in this rivalry have gone over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH
California (13-6, 9-9 ATS) at Arizona State (14-6, 7-9 ATS)
Arizona State hopes to get back on track after an ugly loss to instate rival Arizona as it welcomes the Golden Bears to Wells-Fargo Arena in Tempe for a Pac-10 contest.
Cal has won two in a row, four of five and seven of its last nine, but it barely snuck past lowly Oregon State on Saturday, winning 65-61 but falling way short as a hefty 15½-point home favorite. The Bears are 5-2 in Pac-10 games, but just 3-4 ATS, and they’ve split their first two conference roadies, winning at Washington State (93-88 as a four-point chalk) and losing at Washington (85-69 as a 2½-point pup).
The Sun Devils’ 4-0 SU and ATS winning streak went up in smoke on Saturday, as they got embarrassed by hated Arizona, losing 77-58 as an 11-point home favorite. The SU winner has covered the spread in each of Arizona State’s last eight lined games, including all seven conference contests. Despite that terrible showing against Arizona, the Sun Devils are still 11-2 at home (4-5 ATS), holding visiting teams to just 52.8 ppg.
These teams split their two-game series last year, with Cal rolling 81-71 as a 1½-point home underdog and the Sun Devils getting revenge 83-66 as a seven-point home favorite. Prior to last year, the visitor had been on an 8-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry. The visitor is still 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings – with Cal cashing in eight of its last nine trips to Tempe – and the ‘dog has covered in five of the last six. Finally, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 10 head-to-head matchups.
Cal has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games and nine of its last 13 Pac-10 contests, but it is 4-1 ATS in its last five after a non-cover. The Sun Devils are on ATS runs of 4-1 overall (all in the Pac-10 and all against winning teams) and 16-5 after a non-cover.
The Bears are on “over” streaks of 25-12 on the road, 36-17-1 in league play, 24-9 on Thursday, 45-18-1 after a SU victory and 9-0 against opponents with a winning record. Arizona State carries “over” trends of 13-4 after a double-digit home loss, 5-2 on Thursday and 12-2 versus winning teams. However, nine of the Sun Devils’ last 10 home games have stayed low.
Finally, these teams have topped the total in each of their last four meetings overall and six of their last seven clashes at Arizona State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAL and OVER
NBA
Boston (29-13, 17-25 ATS) at Orlando (29-16, 22-22-1 ATS)
Fresh off the heels of a three-game losing streak, the Celtics now look to make it three straight wins as they travel to Amway Arena to take on the Magic.
Boston lost three straight and five of seven (SU and ATS) through the middle of January but has rebounded to win back-to-back games at home, beating Portland 98-95 in overtime (but coming short as a 10½-point favorite), followed by Monday’s 95-89 win over the Clippers 95-89 (missing as an 11½-point chalk). The Celtics have failed to cash in five straight games, and they’ve been held to double-digits in scoring in all five.
Orlando had its three-game winning streak snapped in Memphis on Monday, losing 99-94 as a 1½-point road chalk. The Magic have been a much different team at home (16-4) than on the road (13-12), including winning three in a row (2-1 ATS) and nine of the last 11 at Amway Arena (6-5 ATS).
The road team has won three in a row in this series – all outright upsets – including Boston’s 86-77 Christmas Day victory in Florida, cashing in as a 5½-point road underdog. Back in November, the Magic went to Beantown and took an 85-78 win as quiet six-point underdogs. The Magic have cashed in three of the last four series clashes going back to last year’s Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series, with Orlando won in seven games.
Boston has failed to cash in four straight after a non-cover and it is just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 after getting two days off, however the Celtics are on positive ATS runs of 48-21-1 as road ‘dogs and 38-17-1 as a ‘dog anywhere. Orlando is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 against Atlantic Division teams, but it is on pointspread slides of 1-5 on Thursdays, 2-5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 as a home favorite of less than five points.
The Celtics are on several “under” runs, including 4-1 overall, 19-7 on Thursday, 10-4 against the Southeast Division and 5-2 as ‘dogs of five points or fewer. The Magic are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 5-1 overall, 5-2 at home, 7-1 as a favorite, 26-8 after a non-cover, 14-3 on Thursday and 5-0 when they get two days off. Finally, the “under” has been the play in six straight series clashes overall, and six of seven meetings in Orlando.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Dallas (30-15, 20-25 ATS) at Phoenix (26-21, 23-24 ATS)
The Mavericks head to US Airways Center in Phoenix to face the struggling Suns in this matchup of perennial Western Conference playoff powers.
Dallas has won four of its last five (2-3 ATS), including three of four on the highway (2-2 ATS). The Mavericks were home on Tuesday and edged the Bucks 108-107 but came up well short as 6½-point favorites. It was only the second time in their last 10 games the Mavs reached triple-digits in scoring
Phoenix has lost seven of nine (SU and ATS) overall, including Tuesday’s 114-109 overtime setback at home to the Bobcats, falling as a 5½-point favorite. The Suns haven’t been playing much defense lately, allowing 13 of the last 14 opponents to score more than 100 points. If the Suns don’t get huge numbers from Amare Stoudemire, they tend to struggle, as evidenced by their loss on Tuesday when Stoudemire managed just 12 points and five rebounds.
Dallas has won three straight (2-1 ATS) and five of six (4-2 ATS) in this rivalry, including a 102-101 home win back in December. However, the Mavs came up short as a 4½-point chalk in that contest, ending a nine-game stretch in which the SU had gone 8-0-1 ATS in this rivalry.
The Mavericks have cashed in four of five as underdogs, but they are on several negative ATS slides, including 2-7 overall, 5-21 on Thursday, 1-6 after a day off and 1-5 against Pacific Division squads. Phoenix has gotten the cash in seven of 10 against Southwest Division teams, but the Suns are in pointspread funks of 2-9 overall, 1-5 at home, 6-20 on Thursday and 1-6 as a favorite.
Dallas is on “under” runs of 7-0 on Thursday, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 against Pacific Division teams, but it is on “over” streaks of 12-4 as a road ‘dog and 4-1 against the Western Conference. Phoenix has stayed below the total in five of seven as a chalk and five of six at home, but it is on “over” runs of 10-2 against the Western Conference, 7-1 on Thursday and 4-0 against Southwest Division teams.
Finally, the “over” has been the play in four of the last five head-to-head meetings and five of the past six clashes in the desert.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
